Caution

Monitor economically sensitive revenues

Board of Supervisors 2023

Description

Monitor activity in key economically sensitive revenues as an indicator of overall fiscal stability and to identify potential need to take corrective action.

Progress Update

Mar-23
  • Property and Transfer Taxes
    • Property taxes are continuing to grow in the current Fiscal Year.
    • However, transfer taxes have historically been indicative of future trends in property tax revenues.
    • Transfer taxes have been softening over the last couple of years. 
      • This is in part due to an unprecedented increase in transfer activities in FY 20-21, presumably a result primarily of COVID-19 pandemic driven market activity, which was anomalous and unlikely to continue.
    • FY 22-23 transfer taxes YTD are outperforming FY 19-20 (pre-pandemic spike) but are still less than the previous two Fiscal Years through the same reporting period.

  • Sales Tax
    • Sales tax revenues appear to be softening, though will likely perform relatively flat as compared to FY 21-22.

  • Business Activity
    • Building fees are on track to perform relatively flat as compared to FY 21-22.
    • Recording fees are down as compared to previous years and on track to underperform as compared to adopted budget.
      • Similar to transfer taxes, these fees experienced an unprecedented increase coincident with the COVID-19 pandemic. 
      • However, the revenue projections indicate reduced activity even as compared to pre-pandemic years.

  • Gas Tax
    • Gas tax revenues are relatively strong in the current FY and on track to exceed previous years.

Next Steps

Mar-23
  • Continue to monitor key revenue streams.
  • Develop response plans if/when necessary.

Measures

Caution
Property Taxes and Transfer Taxes
Board of Supervisors 2023
Caution
Other key general fund revenues
Board of Supervisors 2023
Caution
Business Activity
Board of Supervisors 2023
On Target
Gas Tax
Board of Supervisors 2023

Objectives

On Target
Financial Stability and Core Services
Board of Supervisors 2023

Owner